While Christmas sales were better than forecast, there was no end to the decline of the retail industry in the final quarter of 2011, according to the experts at the Retail Think Tank.
After meeting in January, the KPMG/Ipsos Retail Think Tank (RTT) reached the conclusion that the deterioration in retail health which plagued 2011 continued throughout the fourth quarter. The Retail Health Index (RHI) continued to drop, falling 2 points to 80 in the quarter. This marks the fourth quarter in a row in which the RHI has fallen.
While retailers attempted to kick start demand by slashing prices and increasing the number of unplanned in store promotions, they did so at a cost to margins and profits.
Alarmingly, these costs are impacting negatively on the health of the retail industry for the first time since the third quarter of 2008, at the height of the financial crisis. This illustrates the effect of increased investment in servicing multi-channel operations over the Christmas period.
The majority of RTT members agree to a worrying prediction that the rate of decline in retail health will not slow down in the first quarter of 2012 and the RHI will continue to drop, a further 3 points to 77. This would mark the lowest ebb in retail health since the RTT was established in 2006; and would create a downward momentum not seen since the early stages of 2009.
Helen Dickinson, KPMG, commented, “As we predicted three months ago Christmas was not experienced at full price. Retailers fought hard to get ‘their share’ by matching or exceeding competitors’ offers. This of course impacted margins significantly although it did drive a late uplift in demand in December, with some retailers doing significantly better than others. However, there were many other austerity factors acting to hold it down across October and November. These included a depressing Autumn Statement from the Chancellor; high petrol, diesel and home energy costs; rising unemployment; public-sector strikes over pension changes; the Euro crisis and even the unseasonably mild weather at the start of the quarter.”
Retail analyst Nick Bubb commented, “Retailers who undertook reactive and unplanned discounting in quarter 4 effectively saved Christmas – so far as their balance sheets are concerned. But once you train consumers to expect deep discounts you make a rod for your own back when you attempt to increase margins again. Sadly, many of the best-performing retailers of the 80’s, 90’s and 00’s have continually downgraded their brands; losing brand equity as well as market share. Right now very nearly the only thing propping up demand is the illusion created by food price inflation, and that’s no comfort at all”.